Most shippers believe FedEx and UPS stand behind their “money-back guarantees” on time-definite deliveries. If a package is late, you get a refund — simple, right?

Not exactly.

Carriers advertise guarantees to win trust, but the fine print is packed with exclusions that quietly shift risk back onto you. The result: many shipments you assume are “guaranteed” actually aren’t.

What Carriers Promise (and What They Don’t)

On the surface, the policy seems clear: if your Overnight, 2-Day, or other guaranteed service arrives late, you can claim a refund.

But the guarantee excludes more scenarios than it covers. Common carve-outs include:

• Weather delays (anything the carrier deems “beyond their control”)
• Holidays or peak season exceptions
• Large package categories (oversize, over-max, additional handling)
• Incorrect or incomplete addresses
• Deliveries to certain ZIP codes or international lanes
  

In other words: the guarantee only applies when the carrier was 100% at fault — and carriers write the rules for what counts as their fault.

Why This Matters More Than You Think

Many companies don’t track which shipments are excluded versus which are eligible. They just assume the guarantee covers “late deliveries.”

Here’s the problem:

• A package arriving late due to weather? No refund.
• A package over carrier size thresholds? No refund.
• A peak-season delivery missed by a day? No refund.
  

That means the majority of late shipments never qualify for refunds at all. Carriers market the guarantee, but they also design it to minimize their payout exposure.

How Much Are You Leaving on the Table?

Even when shipments are eligible, claims must be filed within tight windows (about 15 days, depending on carrier). Combine short deadlines with fine-print exclusions, and carriers know most refunds will never be claimed.

Example:

• You ship 200 Overnight packages per week.
• 5% are late (10 packages).
• Half are excluded (weather, size, etc.).
• Of the remaining 5, only 2 ever get filed before the deadline.
  

On paper, you had 10 late shipments. In reality, maybe 2 refunds ever land. Multiply that over a year, and it’s easy to see how carriers quietly keep tens of thousands that should have been refunded.

What Leading Shippers Do

The best operations don’t just assume the guarantee will protect them. They:

• Track eligibility vs. ineligibility — not all late packages are created equal.
• File claims daily/weekly instead of waiting for monthly invoice reviews.
• Audit fine print annually — especially peak-season carve-outs.
• Benchmark results — comparing how many late shipments occur vs. how many are actually refunded.
  

That discipline is the difference between assuming you’re protected and actually recovering the refunds you’re entitled to.

Why This Matters Heading Into Peak Season

Q4 is when exclusions hit hardest: weather disruptions, holiday blackouts, and peak-season fine print all stack up. If you’re relying on the “guarantee” to cover you, you’re likely to be disappointed.

Closing Thought

The “money-back guarantee” isn’t as generous as it sounds. It’s full of exceptions, deadlines, and loopholes — all written to protect the carrier, not you.

If you’re not actively auditing which shipments qualify, how many claims you’ve filed, and how many refunds actually arrive, you’re probably leaving money behind.